26 posts tagged

english

Plans for the next months

Austrian Heritage

I traveled around Austria with UNESCO. It was a 15-day trip. We visited Vienna, Graz and Salzburg, and towns nearby. We learned about restoration, world heritage, materials, and culture. Even though I have been living in Austria for 2 years I learned a lot of new things that I want to share with you.

Architecture

We will learn about the architecture of each region

We will learn about the¬†Voralberg region¬†‚Äď the¬†western part of¬†Austria. It was the¬†poorest hard accessible region. The¬†citizens Used materials efficiently, and¬†they created some techniques, that we can learn from them.

Materials

We visited the¬†open-air museum of¬†wooden architecture, where I found my loveliest material¬†‚Äď shingled wood, 30-50 years lasting tactile material.

You will also learn about the technologies used for sustainable design, such as solar panels in the window.

Restauration

How much does it cost to restore a pucture, what if you spilled a coffee on the cup, and do we need to repair the puctures, that were damaged during a war?

Finance

How to save money during a recession? What happens with startups? Do we need to invest in art and wine? In NFT and crypto? What are swaps? What does the price for futures on gas and wheat mean for us? What happens with Russian, European, American, Chinese and Arab countries now and in the future?

I will publish content in my blog, telegram channel every Wednesday, and every Sunday there will be a Video on youtube.

Aug 2   english

Options

An option is a paper, that gives you a right (not duty) to buy stocks (or anything else) on a specific day. For example, you bought an option for 5$ which gives you the right to buy 1 share of Apple in one year for today’s price of 150$. You expect Apple stocks to rise by more than 5$. Let’s see 3 scenarios of Apple price in one year:

170$, we realize the option and get a profit of 170-150-5 = 15$. This is a 200% return. If we invested in a share, we would have got 170-150 = 20$ profit, 13%.

130$, we don’t realize an option, because now the shares cost less, than in the contract (150$). We lose 5$ (the cost of an option) instead of 130-150=-20$ if we bought a share.

150$-155$, we may realize an option and get a small loss. 153-150-5=-2$. We lost 40$ instead of 2% profit.

If we had bought the shares, we would have risked losing all the share costs. Here we risk losing only the option price of 5$.

Options are the profit guarantee for a seller

A¬†seller wants to¬†have a¬†profit from a¬†share. Instead of¬†thinking about whether the¬†stock price will be as¬†high as¬†he wants or¬†not, he can just say: ‚ÄúI want to¬†get 20$ profit in¬†one year from Apple shares that cost 150$, everything that is higher is yours‚ÄĚ. To¬†do so, he sells the¬†option for¬†20$. A¬†seller immediately gets a¬†profit of¬†20$ and¬†can invest then in¬†something else. Even if the¬†share price drops by¬†20$ to¬†130$, he does not¬†lose anything, as¬†well as¬†a¬†buyer.

Companies also issue options¬†‚Äď Warrants. Companies give premiums to¬†employees as¬†an¬†option for¬†buying a¬†share of¬†a¬†company. For¬†example, Elon Musk gives Tesla employees options for¬†buying tesla at¬†a¬†huge discount, that they can realize at¬†any time. So that when employees save enough, they can invest money in¬†a¬†company. It is an¬†alternative to¬†convertible bonds.

European and American Options

European call (put)option is the right to buy(sell) a unit of an underlying asset at a strike (=pre-specified) price at a specific point in time.
American call (put)option is the right to buy(sell) a unit of an underlying asset at any time on or before an expiration date of an option. European options can also be without an expiration date.

American options are also traded in Europe, in the Netherlands stock exchange, Euronext.liffe, for example. These options are traded primarily on equities: FTSE-100, CAC40, Bel-20.

Price and problems with options

It is hard to estimate the price of an option. There are parameters, such as risk-free rate, time to expiration, and volatility (variance, or price fluctuation). For example, low-volatility options cost less over time, while high-volatility options cost a lot.

Formulas of option pricing

Binomial formula for pricing European options.

  • K = strike price (end price, agreed before signing contract)
  • N = periods of¬†expiration
  • S0 = current price of¬†an¬†asset
  • rf = risk-free return per¬†period
  • ŌÄ= risk-neutral probability of¬†an¬†up move
  • u = ratio of¬†the¬†share price to¬†the¬†prior share price, given that the¬†upstate has occurred over a¬†binomial step
  • d = ratio of¬†the¬†share price to¬†the¬†prior share price, given that the¬†downstate has occurred over a¬†binomial step.

Let’s understand each part of the equation:

The U and D are the possible outcomes (in $) of events. We assume, that there are always two scenarios in one period of time: positive and negative. Some traders use 1 second as a period, but then in 1 minute, there are 2^60, more than 1 billion scenarios. We assume 1 period as a quarter, half, or a full year.

We put all possible outcomes in¬†a¬†binomial tree¬†‚Äď a¬†graph, with 2 inherited sub-elements on¬†each node. Let‚Äôs see the¬†binomial tree example of¬†Apple stock, which can either double or¬†halve, and¬†we also assume, that the¬†risk-free rate is equal to¬†0 for¬†simplicity:

now we count the path to each final node:

1 path
2 paths

It is 1 to UU, 2 to UD, and 1 to DD. Now we find the probability of each of the nodes.

The¬†probability of¬†the¬†last one is 1¬†‚Äď 0.22¬†‚Äď 0.44 = 0.34. Yes, the¬†probability of¬†the¬†nodes is neither 25% nor 33%, it is not¬†similarly distributed. It can only be similarly distributed if ŌÄ=0.5

Finally, we find the option price. We will assume that we need the strike price at the moment (ATM), that is equal to the spot value (S0):

The option price is equal to 99$.

Black Sholes Formula for American and European Options, with no-arbitrage:

  • N = CDF of¬†the¬†normal distribution
  • St = spot price of¬†an¬†asset (current price at¬†time t)
  • K = strike price (end price)
  • rf = risk-free interest rate
  • t = time to¬†maturity
  • ŌÉ = volatility of¬†the¬†asset (variance)

arbitrage is a risk-free profit, that happens when tracking a portfolio (or a share) costs more (or less) than the derivative (forward or an option). If the share price is higher than the forward strike price (end-price) + the cost of a forward, then we short the share and buy a forward or an option.

That means if an Apple share costs 160$ and the forward cost is 0$, and the strike price is 150$, then we short apple stock and buy forwards. We get 160-150=10$ profit. Moreover, when we short a stock, we get the cost of a share to our account, that we can put in a bank. That brings a lot of profit.

Let’s use an option in the example above. Let’s assume that an option is free. We have the same profit if the cost of apple stock is higher than 150$. If apple costs less than 150$, we just don’t exercise the option and get profit from shorting a stock. If the cost of an option was 10$, then we just have a profit of 160-150-5 + 160*(risk-free rate, such as a bank deposit).

As a result, we get risk-free profit from such operations. In a world with unlimited buyers and sellers, we could do the operation over and over again and become the richest people immediately, or in the end of a period.

Put-Call parity Price of a call (buy) and put (sell) options is different. that is because of a risk-free rate. We use an equation:

Call price - Put price = Current price - Present value of a Strike price
Call price - Put price = Current price - Strike price / (1 + risk-free rate)^periods
# usually, a period is equal to 1 year and is named "t" 
C0 - P0 = S0 - K/(1 + rf)^t

Due to the always non-negative risk-free rate (because otherwise, you don’t put money in the bank account), the price of a call is higher than the put.

2022   english   Finance   WU

Statistics: What media to trust?

Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, most media have become opinionated and taken one of the two sides. Some media judged one of the sides without having enough proof, which does not correspond to the presumption of innocence. Conflict-participating countries enforced censorship. Posting videos with military groups is illegal. Whom then to believe?

I found reliable sources based on¬†historical reliability and¬†bias¬†‚Äď the¬†declination to¬†the¬†left or¬†right party. The¬†information is based on¬†statistics:

Reuters

Reuters is a¬†London-based news agency with 2500 employees founded in¬†1851 (170 years ago). ‚ÄúReuters Connect‚ÄĚ has a¬†partnership with 17 news agencies, still including TASS (Russian state-owned media). Reuters has a¬†reputation as¬†the¬†neutral (bias of¬†-1.83 to¬†the¬†left side, for¬†example, NBC News, PBS, and¬†CNN have a¬†bias from -5 to¬†-8) and¬†highly reliable (48 out of¬†64 points) source. Reuters is free to¬†use.

The company adfontesmedia made a report about Reuters, where Reuters was treated as a reliable but a middle-biased source.

Popular western sources, based on parameters form Adfontesmedia.

Media name Country Reliability < 64 Bias Party
Retuers UK 48 -1.83 Left
AP News US 48.82 -1.89 Left
PBS US 48.36 -4.76 Left
Washington Post US 42.87 -8.44 Left
Wall street journal US 45.35 5.17 Right
CNN US 42.89 -8.61 Left
Algazeera Qatar 45.68 -4.39 Left

The most reliable sources, based on statistics, appeared to be on the left party, The most unbiased are Reuters and AP news.

If you want to¬†find another reliable resource, use Adfontesmedia Interactive Media Bias Chart¬ģ, that compares 1662 sources based on¬†the¬†bias and¬†reliability score.
Note, the Adfontesmedia was criticized by the Association of College and Research Libraries and others, meaning that the statistics can also be biased.

The live map of events

liveuamap.com is a map of events developed by Ukrainian software engineers from Dnipro Rodion Rozhkovskyi and Oleksandr Bilchenko. Although Ukrainians manage the website, it is a trustworthy resource with constant and fast updates. I have been using the website daily since the 24th of February. Unfortunately, liveuamap.com mentions all Russian news as propaganda and relies mainly on western media.

Telegram

Telegram is the leading news platform nowadays. The media can post violent content, videos from different angles, and freedom to write anything without censorship. Such freedom attracts young people and citizens of conflict states. Hundreds of Russian and Ukrainian telegram channels have millions of subscribers each.

But¬†most of¬†the¬†channels are anonymous. That means¬†‚Äď no¬†one has a¬†responsibility for¬†the¬†words said. Enormous influence and¬†impunity (being unpunished) make the¬†owners extremely powerful. For¬†example, no¬†one knows who owns Ukrainian channels, such as¬†‚ÄúReal Kyiv‚ÄĚ or¬†‚ÄúF***ing Kiyv,‚ÄĚ and¬†channels with other cities in¬†the¬†title. These channels spread nationalistic and¬†extremist information. These channels want Ukrainians to¬†hate ethnic Russians and¬†also Russian citizens. Such sources escalate the¬†war.

Ukrainians are subscribed to¬†tens of¬†such channels. Ukrainians spend their free time reading the¬†news. The¬†majority of¬†the¬†channels bring the¬†same information, and¬†some provide opinions. Opinions are scary¬†‚Äď a¬†person can claim any opinion and¬†forecast anything. In¬†stressed situations, people believe in¬†any lie. The¬†problem is if the¬†media keep posting lies for¬†a¬†long time, then everyone believes in¬†a¬†lie. Such lies happen on¬†Russian TV channels¬†‚Äď that is why this is the¬†least reliable source. People who regularly listen to¬†other people‚Äôs opinions stop thinking, and¬†they rely on¬†others. People lose control over themselves.

Help with the mind

Read facts, Reduce opinions. People want to keep updated, moreover if the theme concerns them. People read news agencies, youtube bloggers, and telegram channels. The media also shares opinions and experts’ thoughts. Every opinion is biased and based on experience.

The¬†same fact or¬†an¬†event is commented on¬†by¬†thousands of¬†influential experts. Reliable experts have own view on¬†a¬†situation¬†‚Äď they have a¬†plan of¬†action. Reliable experts are well educated and¬†they project a¬†situation that they have before in¬†the¬†future and¬†current events. Listening to¬†2-3 experts, who have different strategies may help to¬†educate yourself. Listening to¬†tens of¬†experts weekly makes a¬†person anxious and¬†costs time.

For¬†example, I am interested in¬†economics and¬†people‚Äôs lives. I chose 4 channels, where I consume information (in¬†Russian): @market_tweets posts economic, stock market facts, graphs, and¬†governors‚Äô quotes. @Varlamov posts videos about people‚Äôs lives and¬†documentaries about different themes. Dengi_ne_spyat (Tinkoff bank media) posts 2 videos about the¬†stock market weekly¬†‚Äď aggressive and¬†conservative investors with 20-year knowledge tell about stock markets based on¬†news, data, speakers, and¬†experience. Reuters posts trustworthy articles.

I took the graph idea from the psychology agency Zigmund.online, and its telegram channel.

If a person subscribes to tens of channels, he will be lost in opinions. He will spend all his free and working time keeping updated. I was in such a situation at the beginning of a conflict.

In the end, a person burns out. A person becomes angry or scared, and he can make hasty (rash, unthoughtful) decisions.

If the event is not escalating, you lose interest in it. For example, if ten soldiers were killed last week, you would be astonished and expect more. If today, hundred of the soldiers were killed, you would be even more curious to know what happened. But if next week there will be 5-10 deaths, you will lose interest in this event.

News agencies want you always to¬†be astonished¬†‚Äď they increase the¬†importance of¬†each following event. Remember how news agencies talked about killing a¬†couple of¬†civilians, Mariupol, Chornobyl, exploding of¬†a¬†hospital, theater, Bucha, train station, ship sunk¬†‚Äď each event was seen as¬†a¬†bigger and¬†bigger event. But¬†no¬†one cares nowadays about the¬†tank explosions and¬†deaths of¬†tens of¬†civilians. News agencies will do whatever they can to¬†escalate the¬†conflict; otherwise, people forget about the¬†event.

News agencies are real winners in this conflict. They have got huge influence: new readers, paid subscribers, more time spent on a website. News agencies became rich due to advertisements and paid subscriptions. They don’t want you to leave but keep you updated for the long term.

Fake News

My team from the¬†Vienna University of¬†Business and¬†Economics and¬†I made a¬†presentation and¬†a¬†paper about fake news¬†‚Äď types of¬†fake news, history, how to¬†spot and¬†prevent spreading fake news.

2022   english   statistics

Russia and Ukraine: Statistics and Media

I collected surveys and statistics from Statista. If you want to learn more, purchase a report about the Russia-Ukraine conflict or be a student to download for free. Based on samples of 1000-3000 respondents.

Positive thoughts about Russia, and GDP per capita in Russia

Based on IMF Data and KIIS

Before the Crimea events in 2014, Ukrainians were friendly to the Russian nation. 4 years after the Crimea event, Ukrainians started to increase relationships with Russia.

Correlation between Russian GDP and feelings about Russia

Thinking About Russia Coefficient Correlation with GDP
Very/Mostly Positive 85% Very High positive correlation
Very/Mostly Negative -83% Very High negative correlation
Hard to say -75% High Negative correlation

We see a strong relationship between the GDP of Russia and the Attitude of Ukrainians to Russians.

Attitudes of respondents separately to the leadership and separately to the population of another state

How do Ukrainians think about Russians in October 2021?

The absolute majority of Ukrainians think good about Russians.

If a referendum on Ukraine’s accession to the European Union (EU) was held next Sunday, how would you vote?

Based on a sample, Ukrainians want to be a part of the EU.

2022   english   statistics

Educational Advertising

Educational advertising brings value to a person. The reader learns, explores new themes, and obtains new values. Let’s see an example:

Alex wants to buy coffee beans. Alex knows nothing about coffee beans. Alex does the next actions:

  1. He googles “how to choose a coffee.
  2. Alex opens the most relevant blog.
  3. He reads the article, for example this one.
  4. Alex reads about roasting, types of beans, such as Robusta and Arabica, tastes, and storing a coffee.
  5. Alex clicks on a suggested article about choosing coffee producers.
  6. He finds the best coffee and a producer based on his preferences, even without tasting it.

Alex finds out that he can buy these coffee beans in a shop that runs this blog. Alex trusts the coffee shop website because the website educated him. Moreover, Alex sees that the guys in this coffee shop know the business and know everything about coffee. Alex is loyal to them and is ready to buy a product. Even if the price is higher.

The coffee shop could also show their expenses. The customer then understands a fair price for coffee and sees how much the company profits from it. If the customer, Alex, got from the blog precious information, he will reward the company with this profit (margin). And Alex will continue buying from this coffee shop if the company brings him more and more value.

Alex will recommend your blog to friends or educate them himself, and he will more probably give a link to your website. Alex will not recommend some bullsh*t; that is why the product that the company sells must have a high quality. Otherwise, Alex is scammed.

The blog and articles are assets of a company. A blog is a property that belongs to a company. Articles can also be posted on foreign resources, such as business journals (in Russia: vc.ru or Journal.tinkoff.ru), personal blogs (to be paid), or social networks: YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, Telegram, etc.

blogs and articles are powerful tools to attract customers. In my projects, I use articles as the primary source of attracting customers, investors, and employees. For example, I posted an article about bicycle lockers and in 1 week, I got 7.5k views, 100 likes, and 100 comments. I made new connections with 3 interesting people in Austria and got 5 contacts of people interested to help in a project and help with production. I also made a survey in this article, in which 500 people participated. I understood the demand and price for a parking spot in a given sample. I paid nothing for this blog but spent 4 hours of my life.

Youtube videos are also assets. Videos require more time and equipment. It is harder to link to a video, and the information from the video is harder to access. For example, you want to compare 2 coffee beans. You are interested in the type of coffee, size, and taste. You can easily find it in a table in a text, but if you watch a video, you search for a timestamp where the table is shown. To find information about taste, you should listen to a whole video or a fragment that you also have to find. But the video gives you a picture: a cup in which you pour a coffee, a foam from coffee, the foam elasticity, videos from picturesque places where the coffee was taken, and the roasting process.

Videos are great to show the process of production or properties, and use of a product. for example, seven miles coffee shop shows educational videos of how to brew coffee, recipes, competitions, and funny videos. They sell coffee beans online and sell coffee drinks in cafés. They have 150k subscribers, and I am sure they don’t spend too much money on ads.

Videos get old fast. In¬†4-6 years, the¬†videos become old, and¬†just a¬†few people will watch them¬†‚Äď there are competition and¬†design trend changes. With a¬†blog, it is easier¬†‚Äď you may edit text and¬†add fresh information. In¬†a¬†blog, you may also change the¬†design theme¬†‚Äď just make some changes in¬†a¬†code, and¬†that‚Äôs it.

why not use ads

Ads are also powerful. However, an advertisement mainly works if a company has enough money to provide many ads and show them constantly on different sources. If a company stops the ad campaign, the new customers will stop coming, and the existing customers will leave. Profit in companies that rely primarily on ads and don’t have a brand, like Coca-Cola, will be small or even a loss. Let’s see 2 examples:

T-Mobile is a¬†cellular carrier, that decided to¬†enter the¬†Austrian market. Austria already had a¬†market leader¬†‚Äď A1. T-Mobile had to¬†enter the¬†market fast and¬†take a¬†huge market share. Marketologists decided to¬†attract people from Vienna, the¬†capital of¬†Austria, by¬†showing ads offline in¬†a¬†city.

Marketologist placed ads on all available banners in Vienna: on houses, highways, train stations, and even banners on trams. There were no banners left so A1 could not post ads anywhere in a city. The ads were shown for 2 weeks everywhere, and in the next weeks, the number of banners was decreasing. Everyone knew about T-mobile after this campaign, and thousands of people became customers of T-Mobile.

The company spent millions of dollars on such an advertisement. Nowadays, the company does not make too many ads and I have even forgotten about T-Mobile, and only after meeting with a marketing specialist from T-Mobile I learned about that case. That means, that ads should stay everywhere to remember a brand.

Casper Sleep company that produces matrasses and sells them online never made a profit. However, Casper Sleep went to IPO on NASDAQ, and the market capitalization was at a max of one billion dollars. Casper sold matrasses via Instagram ads and other sources (as well as any other company).

To acquire one customer, the company pays hundreds of dollars, and with all the costs, they sell mattresses at a loss. The idea was to make a brand like Coca-Cola, but it did not happen. Investors understood that such business did not work and sold their shares. As a result, a company was delisted from NASDAQ, with market capitalisation of 280m$.

2022   advertisement   Business and Economics   english   web

Business cards

Save contacts

If you visit events or¬†talk to¬†new people, you need to¬†leave contacts. The¬†most popular ways are to¬†show a¬†QR for¬†LinkedIn or¬†Instagram, tell a¬†phone number, or¬†give a¬†business card. From my experience, When I write a¬†phone number, I have only time to¬†write the¬†name and¬†the¬†name of¬†the¬†organization¬†‚Äď it takes 1 minute to¬†do the¬†whole process, It may sound a¬†little, but¬†when you talk with 40 people on¬†one event, these 40 minutes become tremendous.

I had a¬†problem at¬†a¬†summit in¬†St.Gallen with the¬†LinkedIn QR code¬†‚Äď I did not¬†find how to¬†open it. I spent 2 minutes with a¬†person trying to¬†understand where the¬†QR code was¬†‚Äď in¬†the¬†end, we just changed the¬†phone numbers (we could also find the¬†names on¬†Linkedin, but¬†we did not¬†do it). And¬†also, people have a¬†thousand connections on¬†Linkedin, so your contact will be one of¬†the¬†thousands of¬†similar contacts. But¬†I still think that LinkedIn is the¬†best social business network.

Business cards are the¬†easiest way to¬†show leave contacts. Within 5 seconds, the¬†business card is in¬†your interlocutor‚Äôs hands (companion‚Äôs). Also, millennials and¬†older people use business cards by¬†default¬†‚Äď they expect to¬†get the¬†business card from you. That is why I use business cards.

Old card

The¬†first 100 business cards I made when I was 16, I was making a¬†project coldcaller.ru. I wrote in¬†Russian: ‚Äúhello! I am Daniill Kovekh, a¬†Founder of¬†Coldcaller.ru‚ÄĚ, my phone number and¬†a¬†corporate email. I put a¬†QR code linked to¬†a¬†website on¬†the¬†other side. I used a¬†white background and¬†black text. I used capital letters without serifs (grotesques) that were tall and¬†narrow. I used the¬†mid-price matte paper so that I could write on¬†it.

New card

In¬†April, I made 150 business cards with a¬†new design. These business cards are personal and¬†for¬†universal use. I pointed out the¬†name of¬†a¬†blog as¬†a¬†header. This is the¬†primary information because, in¬†a¬†blog, a¬†person finds all the¬†links he can be interested in¬†‚Äď CV, Linkedin, Projects, and¬†the¬†art shop. I don‚Äôt need QR on¬†a¬†business card because Koveh.com is easy to¬†write and¬†remember.

I wrote my email daniil@koveh.com on¬†one side. I didn‚Äôt add the¬†telephone number¬†‚Äď first, I have different phone numbers: 2 phone numbers in¬†Russia and¬†two phone numbers in¬†Austria, and¬†soon, 1 in¬†America. So, mentioning any will not¬†mean that I respond from the¬†telephone. The¬†email, as¬†well as¬†the¬†domain koveh.com, remains unchanged forever. Moreover, I don‚Äôt want to¬†give my telephone number to¬†everyone, and¬†it should remain private.

I mentioned skills: Art, Architecture, Finances, Investing, Data science. I also mentioned that I know 3 languages: English, Russian, and¬†German. I am not¬†planning to¬†learn new languages to¬†a¬†high level, so the¬†information will be actual for¬†a¬†long time. I also wrote consulting and¬†projects, because I create my projects (AKA startups, but¬†I don‚Äôt like this word, It is now a¬†synonym for¬†‚Äúlooser‚ÄĚ), and¬†make consultations on¬†Investments, Marketing in¬†the¬†real estate market, and¬†I am planning to¬†consult about Architecture, Construction, and¬†Urban Planning, as¬†well as¬†investments in¬†Art, Wine, and¬†Real Estate.

To make a business card interesting, I made an infinite stripe of skills I offer. The idea is that these skills are infinite, but later I decided to end with the starting word so that it looks like a separate printing or a pattern.

The¬†words in¬†the¬†middle are huge; the¬†margin from the¬†borders compensates for¬†the¬†size. I Increased the¬†letter-spacing because the¬†letter ‚ÄúV‚ÄĚ has too much white space at¬†the¬†bottom. I chose the¬†serif fonts¬†‚Äď they are easy to¬†read.
The¬†letters also remind me of¬†Russia, especially the¬†letter ‚ÄúM‚ÄĚ reminds me of¬†Moscow. The¬†letter is unique because it has two different serifs: Linear serif and¬†curved serif.

Unfortunately, I ordered an American card size, that is longer than the standard credit-card size.

2022   Business and Economics   english
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