Plans for the next months

Austrian Heritage

I traveled around Austria with UNESCO. It was a 15-day trip. We visited Vienna, Graz and Salzburg, and towns nearby. We learned about restoration, world heritage, materials, and culture. Even though I have been living in Austria for 2 years I learned a lot of new things that I want to share with you.

Architecture

We will learn about the architecture of each region

We will learn about the¬†Voralberg region¬†‚Äď the¬†western part of¬†Austria. It was the¬†poorest hard accessible region. The¬†citizens Used materials efficiently, and¬†they created some techniques, that we can learn from them.

Materials

We visited the¬†open-air museum of¬†wooden architecture, where I found my loveliest material¬†‚Äď shingled wood, 30-50 years lasting tactile material.

You will also learn about the technologies used for sustainable design, such as solar panels in the window.

Restauration

How much does it cost to restore a pucture, what if you spilled a coffee on the cup, and do we need to repair the puctures, that were damaged during a war?

Finance

How to save money during a recession? What happens with startups? Do we need to invest in art and wine? In NFT and crypto? What are swaps? What does the price for futures on gas and wheat mean for us? What happens with Russian, European, American, Chinese and Arab countries now and in the future?

I will publish content in my blog, telegram channel every Wednesday, and every Sunday there will be a Video on youtube.

Aug 2   english

Options

An option is a paper, that gives you a right (not duty) to buy stocks (or anything else) on a specific day. For example, you bought an option for 5$ which gives you the right to buy 1 share of Apple in one year for today’s price of 150$. You expect Apple stocks to rise by more than 5$. Let’s see 3 scenarios of Apple price in one year:

170$, we realize the option and get a profit of 170-150-5 = 15$. This is a 200% return. If we invested in a share, we would have got 170-150 = 20$ profit, 13%.

130$, we don’t realize an option, because now the shares cost less, than in the contract (150$). We lose 5$ (the cost of an option) instead of 130-150=-20$ if we bought a share.

150$-155$, we may realize an option and get a small loss. 153-150-5=-2$. We lost 40$ instead of 2% profit.

If we had bought the shares, we would have risked losing all the share costs. Here we risk losing only the option price of 5$.

Options are the profit guarantee for a seller

A¬†seller wants to¬†have a¬†profit from a¬†share. Instead of¬†thinking about whether the¬†stock price will be as¬†high as¬†he wants or¬†not, he can just say: ‚ÄúI want to¬†get 20$ profit in¬†one year from Apple shares that cost 150$, everything that is higher is yours‚ÄĚ. To¬†do so, he sells the¬†option for¬†20$. A¬†seller immediately gets a¬†profit of¬†20$ and¬†can invest then in¬†something else. Even if the¬†share price drops by¬†20$ to¬†130$, he does not¬†lose anything, as¬†well as¬†a¬†buyer.

Companies also issue options¬†‚Äď Warrants. Companies give premiums to¬†employees as¬†an¬†option for¬†buying a¬†share of¬†a¬†company. For¬†example, Elon Musk gives Tesla employees options for¬†buying tesla at¬†a¬†huge discount, that they can realize at¬†any time. So that when employees save enough, they can invest money in¬†a¬†company. It is an¬†alternative to¬†convertible bonds.

European and American Options

European call (put)option is the right to buy(sell) a unit of an underlying asset at a strike (=pre-specified) price at a specific point in time.
American call (put)option is the right to buy(sell) a unit of an underlying asset at any time on or before an expiration date of an option. European options can also be without an expiration date.

American options are also traded in Europe, in the Netherlands stock exchange, Euronext.liffe, for example. These options are traded primarily on equities: FTSE-100, CAC40, Bel-20.

Price and problems with options

It is hard to estimate the price of an option. There are parameters, such as risk-free rate, time to expiration, and volatility (variance, or price fluctuation). For example, low-volatility options cost less over time, while high-volatility options cost a lot.

Formulas of option pricing

Binomial formula for pricing European options.

  • K = strike price (end price, agreed before signing contract)
  • N = periods of¬†expiration
  • S0 = current price of¬†an¬†asset
  • rf = risk-free return per¬†period
  • ŌÄ= risk-neutral probability of¬†an¬†up move
  • u = ratio of¬†the¬†share price to¬†the¬†prior share price, given that the¬†upstate has occurred over a¬†binomial step
  • d = ratio of¬†the¬†share price to¬†the¬†prior share price, given that the¬†downstate has occurred over a¬†binomial step.

Let’s understand each part of the equation:

The U and D are the possible outcomes (in $) of events. We assume, that there are always two scenarios in one period of time: positive and negative. Some traders use 1 second as a period, but then in 1 minute, there are 2^60, more than 1 billion scenarios. We assume 1 period as a quarter, half, or a full year.

We put all possible outcomes in¬†a¬†binomial tree¬†‚Äď a¬†graph, with 2 inherited sub-elements on¬†each node. Let‚Äôs see the¬†binomial tree example of¬†Apple stock, which can either double or¬†halve, and¬†we also assume, that the¬†risk-free rate is equal to¬†0 for¬†simplicity:

now we count the path to each final node:

1 path
2 paths

It is 1 to UU, 2 to UD, and 1 to DD. Now we find the probability of each of the nodes.

The¬†probability of¬†the¬†last one is 1¬†‚Äď 0.22¬†‚Äď 0.44 = 0.34. Yes, the¬†probability of¬†the¬†nodes is neither 25% nor 33%, it is not¬†similarly distributed. It can only be similarly distributed if ŌÄ=0.5

Finally, we find the option price. We will assume that we need the strike price at the moment (ATM), that is equal to the spot value (S0):

The option price is equal to 99$.

Black Sholes Formula for American and European Options, with no-arbitrage:

  • N = CDF of¬†the¬†normal distribution
  • St = spot price of¬†an¬†asset (current price at¬†time t)
  • K = strike price (end price)
  • rf = risk-free interest rate
  • t = time to¬†maturity
  • ŌÉ = volatility of¬†the¬†asset (variance)

arbitrage is a risk-free profit, that happens when tracking a portfolio (or a share) costs more (or less) than the derivative (forward or an option). If the share price is higher than the forward strike price (end-price) + the cost of a forward, then we short the share and buy a forward or an option.

That means if an Apple share costs 160$ and the forward cost is 0$, and the strike price is 150$, then we short apple stock and buy forwards. We get 160-150=10$ profit. Moreover, when we short a stock, we get the cost of a share to our account, that we can put in a bank. That brings a lot of profit.

Let’s use an option in the example above. Let’s assume that an option is free. We have the same profit if the cost of apple stock is higher than 150$. If apple costs less than 150$, we just don’t exercise the option and get profit from shorting a stock. If the cost of an option was 10$, then we just have a profit of 160-150-5 + 160*(risk-free rate, such as a bank deposit).

As a result, we get risk-free profit from such operations. In a world with unlimited buyers and sellers, we could do the operation over and over again and become the richest people immediately, or in the end of a period.

Put-Call parity Price of a call (buy) and put (sell) options is different. that is because of a risk-free rate. We use an equation:

Call price - Put price = Current price - Present value of a Strike price
Call price - Put price = Current price - Strike price / (1 + risk-free rate)^periods
# usually, a period is equal to 1 year and is named "t" 
C0 - P0 = S0 - K/(1 + rf)^t

Due to the always non-negative risk-free rate (because otherwise, you don’t put money in the bank account), the price of a call is higher than the put.

2022   english   Finance   WU
2022   Link   Russian

Statistics: biased unreliable Media

In¬†the¬†last article, I have shown reliable sources based on¬†my experience and¬†more or¬†less reliable statistics. Here I post the¬†list of¬†unreliable media with more than 1 Million readers. I don‚Äôt add anonymous sources¬†‚Äď they are unreliable. The¬†state-owned political media are also treated as¬†unreliable.

Media Name County Reliability Bias Fake example Disclosure
The Sun UK Low Strong right example mediabiasfactcheck

Note, I judge the media myself, with the help of Google and paid statistics, Given by the Vienna University of Economics. I am not affiliated with any source and do everything to help my readers.

I am centrist, and I trust neither lefts nor rights. I treat the neutral equally distributed to the left and right Information.

Where to check news

check an unknown website on similarweb.com. Similarweb shows everything about somewhat popular websites; try the following sources:
Allsides.com

2022   statistics

Statistics: What media to trust?

Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, most media have become opinionated and taken one of the two sides. Some media judged one of the sides without having enough proof, which does not correspond to the presumption of innocence. Conflict-participating countries enforced censorship. Posting videos with military groups is illegal. Whom then to believe?

I found reliable sources based on¬†historical reliability and¬†bias¬†‚Äď the¬†declination to¬†the¬†left or¬†right party. The¬†information is based on¬†statistics:

Reuters

Reuters is a¬†London-based news agency with 2500 employees founded in¬†1851 (170 years ago). ‚ÄúReuters Connect‚ÄĚ has a¬†partnership with 17 news agencies, still including TASS (Russian state-owned media). Reuters has a¬†reputation as¬†the¬†neutral (bias of¬†-1.83 to¬†the¬†left side, for¬†example, NBC News, PBS, and¬†CNN have a¬†bias from -5 to¬†-8) and¬†highly reliable (48 out of¬†64 points) source. Reuters is free to¬†use.

The company adfontesmedia made a report about Reuters, where Reuters was treated as a reliable but a middle-biased source.

Popular western sources, based on parameters form Adfontesmedia.

Media name Country Reliability < 64 Bias Party
Retuers UK 48 -1.83 Left
AP News US 48.82 -1.89 Left
PBS US 48.36 -4.76 Left
Washington Post US 42.87 -8.44 Left
Wall street journal US 45.35 5.17 Right
CNN US 42.89 -8.61 Left
Algazeera Qatar 45.68 -4.39 Left

The most reliable sources, based on statistics, appeared to be on the left party, The most unbiased are Reuters and AP news.

If you want to¬†find another reliable resource, use Adfontesmedia Interactive Media Bias Chart¬ģ, that compares 1662 sources based on¬†the¬†bias and¬†reliability score.
Note, the Adfontesmedia was criticized by the Association of College and Research Libraries and others, meaning that the statistics can also be biased.

The live map of events

liveuamap.com is a map of events developed by Ukrainian software engineers from Dnipro Rodion Rozhkovskyi and Oleksandr Bilchenko. Although Ukrainians manage the website, it is a trustworthy resource with constant and fast updates. I have been using the website daily since the 24th of February. Unfortunately, liveuamap.com mentions all Russian news as propaganda and relies mainly on western media.

Telegram

Telegram is the leading news platform nowadays. The media can post violent content, videos from different angles, and freedom to write anything without censorship. Such freedom attracts young people and citizens of conflict states. Hundreds of Russian and Ukrainian telegram channels have millions of subscribers each.

But¬†most of¬†the¬†channels are anonymous. That means¬†‚Äď no¬†one has a¬†responsibility for¬†the¬†words said. Enormous influence and¬†impunity (being unpunished) make the¬†owners extremely powerful. For¬†example, no¬†one knows who owns Ukrainian channels, such as¬†‚ÄúReal Kyiv‚ÄĚ or¬†‚ÄúF***ing Kiyv,‚ÄĚ and¬†channels with other cities in¬†the¬†title. These channels spread nationalistic and¬†extremist information. These channels want Ukrainians to¬†hate ethnic Russians and¬†also Russian citizens. Such sources escalate the¬†war.

Ukrainians are subscribed to¬†tens of¬†such channels. Ukrainians spend their free time reading the¬†news. The¬†majority of¬†the¬†channels bring the¬†same information, and¬†some provide opinions. Opinions are scary¬†‚Äď a¬†person can claim any opinion and¬†forecast anything. In¬†stressed situations, people believe in¬†any lie. The¬†problem is if the¬†media keep posting lies for¬†a¬†long time, then everyone believes in¬†a¬†lie. Such lies happen on¬†Russian TV channels¬†‚Äď that is why this is the¬†least reliable source. People who regularly listen to¬†other people‚Äôs opinions stop thinking, and¬†they rely on¬†others. People lose control over themselves.

Help with the mind

Read facts, Reduce opinions. People want to keep updated, moreover if the theme concerns them. People read news agencies, youtube bloggers, and telegram channels. The media also shares opinions and experts’ thoughts. Every opinion is biased and based on experience.

The¬†same fact or¬†an¬†event is commented on¬†by¬†thousands of¬†influential experts. Reliable experts have own view on¬†a¬†situation¬†‚Äď they have a¬†plan of¬†action. Reliable experts are well educated and¬†they project a¬†situation that they have before in¬†the¬†future and¬†current events. Listening to¬†2-3 experts, who have different strategies may help to¬†educate yourself. Listening to¬†tens of¬†experts weekly makes a¬†person anxious and¬†costs time.

For¬†example, I am interested in¬†economics and¬†people‚Äôs lives. I chose 4 channels, where I consume information (in¬†Russian): @market_tweets posts economic, stock market facts, graphs, and¬†governors‚Äô quotes. @Varlamov posts videos about people‚Äôs lives and¬†documentaries about different themes. Dengi_ne_spyat (Tinkoff bank media) posts 2 videos about the¬†stock market weekly¬†‚Äď aggressive and¬†conservative investors with 20-year knowledge tell about stock markets based on¬†news, data, speakers, and¬†experience. Reuters posts trustworthy articles.

I took the graph idea from the psychology agency Zigmund.online, and its telegram channel.

If a person subscribes to tens of channels, he will be lost in opinions. He will spend all his free and working time keeping updated. I was in such a situation at the beginning of a conflict.

In the end, a person burns out. A person becomes angry or scared, and he can make hasty (rash, unthoughtful) decisions.

If the event is not escalating, you lose interest in it. For example, if ten soldiers were killed last week, you would be astonished and expect more. If today, hundred of the soldiers were killed, you would be even more curious to know what happened. But if next week there will be 5-10 deaths, you will lose interest in this event.

News agencies want you always to¬†be astonished¬†‚Äď they increase the¬†importance of¬†each following event. Remember how news agencies talked about killing a¬†couple of¬†civilians, Mariupol, Chornobyl, exploding of¬†a¬†hospital, theater, Bucha, train station, ship sunk¬†‚Äď each event was seen as¬†a¬†bigger and¬†bigger event. But¬†no¬†one cares nowadays about the¬†tank explosions and¬†deaths of¬†tens of¬†civilians. News agencies will do whatever they can to¬†escalate the¬†conflict; otherwise, people forget about the¬†event.

News agencies are real winners in this conflict. They have got huge influence: new readers, paid subscribers, more time spent on a website. News agencies became rich due to advertisements and paid subscriptions. They don’t want you to leave but keep you updated for the long term.

Fake News

My team from the¬†Vienna University of¬†Business and¬†Economics and¬†I made a¬†presentation and¬†a¬†paper about fake news¬†‚Äď types of¬†fake news, history, how to¬†spot and¬†prevent spreading fake news.

2022   english   statistics

Russia and Ukraine: Statistics and Media

I collected surveys and statistics from Statista. If you want to learn more, purchase a report about the Russia-Ukraine conflict or be a student to download for free. Based on samples of 1000-3000 respondents.

Positive thoughts about Russia, and GDP per capita in Russia

Based on IMF Data and KIIS

Before the Crimea events in 2014, Ukrainians were friendly to the Russian nation. 4 years after the Crimea event, Ukrainians started to increase relationships with Russia.

Correlation between Russian GDP and feelings about Russia

Thinking About Russia Coefficient Correlation with GDP
Very/Mostly Positive 85% Very High positive correlation
Very/Mostly Negative -83% Very High negative correlation
Hard to say -75% High Negative correlation

We see a strong relationship between the GDP of Russia and the Attitude of Ukrainians to Russians.

Attitudes of respondents separately to the leadership and separately to the population of another state

How do Ukrainians think about Russians in October 2021?

The absolute majority of Ukrainians think good about Russians.

If a referendum on Ukraine’s accession to the European Union (EU) was held next Sunday, how would you vote?

Based on a sample, Ukrainians want to be a part of the EU.

2022   english   statistics
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